The Middle East’s “Clean Energy War”: Saudi Arabia’s $1.5 Billion Photovoltaic Export Agreement Directly Confronts EU Carbon Border Tax

In the Riyadh exhibition hall, over 200 photovoltaic panels are quietly generating electricity. What’s remarkable is that each of them bears a green digital code that can be scanned to display a real-time blockchain certificate proving that “this panel has a carbon footprint of less than 400kg CO2 equivalent”—half the industry average.

On January 28th, Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Development Center announced a groundbreaking $1.5 billion photovoltaic module export agreement with five European energy groups. Unlike previous energy trade deals, this agreement is explicitly based on a “low-carbon premium” model. European buyers will pay a 15% premium for each ton of carbon emissions reduced during the manufacturing of these photovoltaic products. The funds will be entirely used for upgrading production lines at Saudi Arabia’s new polysilicon plant, with the goal of achieving zero carbon emissions by 2027. This move directly targets the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set to formally expand to cover photovoltaic products in 2026.

This is not just a trade deal but a paradigm shift in the global clean energy industrial chain. With its abundant solar resources and natural gas for energy, Saudi-produced polysilicon inherently has a 40% lower carbon footprint than Chinese products that primarily rely on coal-fired power. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stated, “We are not competing on price, but on carbon emission data.” Data shows that China currently accounts for over 80% of global photovoltaic production capacity, but most of it relies on coal power. With the EU’s carbon tariff coverage expanding, Chinese photovoltaic products could face additional taxes of 20-30% starting in 2027.

The deal has sparked intense reactions across the industry. Norway’s Scatec immediately announced it would postpone its plan to build a 3GW photovoltaic plant in Saudi Arabia and instead increase investment in local manufacturing of photovoltaic components. German think tank Agora Energiewende issued a warning report stating that the Middle East may leverage its “green hydrogen + photovoltaic” dual advantage to reshape the global renewable energy landscape. More critically, the Biden administration is considering proposing a “Clean Energy Competition Act” this quarter, which would offer tax credits for U.S. companies importing low-carbon photovoltaic products, potentially leading to an unprecedented subsidy war in the global clean energy sector.


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