Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), delivered a forward-looking speech on January 14. She stated that the latest World Economic Outlook report, to be released on January 19, will reveal a core conclusion: the global economy is demonstrating “exceptional resilience” in the face of trade shocks. This assessment paints a cautiously optimistic backdrop for the world economic landscape as 2026 kicks off, indicating that although the global economic train is jolting, it is far from derailing.
Decoding “Exceptional Resilience”: How Has the Global Economy Withstood Shocks?
In Georgieva’s view, the global economy has not been crushed by the wave of trade protectionism as some pessimistic forecasts had suggested. Behind this resilience lies a buffer network woven by multiple intertwined factors.
First is the agility of the private sector and the adaptability of policies. Lessons learned from the global financial crisis have prompted many countries to strengthen their policy and institutional frameworks. More importantly, the private sector has displayed a high degree of flexibility amid uncertainty—for instance, proactively addressing challenges by advancing imports and restructuring supply chains. Meanwhile, the actual tariff rates implemented by the United States are lower than initially announced, and the improved financial conditions brought about by factors such as the weakening U.S. dollar have alleviated the expected shocks.
Second, the driving force of technology cannot be overlooked. The investment boom spearheaded by artificial intelligence (AI) has injected new momentum into global economic growth. This wave of technology-driven investment has not only boosted the growth of advanced economies like the United States but also driven the digital transformation of the real economy, providing a structural growth anchor for the world economy.
Third, the steady performance of major economies has formed a cornerstone. The U.S. economy has successfully avoided the anticipated recession, while major emerging economies such as China have shown stronger-than-expected vitality, acting as stabilizers for global growth. Leveraging their competitiveness in manufacturing and certain industries, China, India, and ASEAN countries are projected to maintain robust growth momentum. The IMF previously forecast that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Although these rates are lower than pre-pandemic levels, they are already commendable under the current circumstances.
“Warmth” in the Report: Growth and Divergence Coexist
The upcoming report does not depict a gloomy picture. The IMF’s projections themselves send a signal that the global economy is “doing better than feared”. According to reports, global economic growth will only slow slightly, and overall inflation will show a downward trend. This provides central banks around the world with a certain degree of policy space.
Divergence in growth drivers across different regions will emerge as a prominent feature. On one hand, advanced economies represented by the United States, relying on technological advantages such as AI, have a significantly brighter economic growth outlook than Europe, which is weighed down by geopolitical conflicts and energy issues. On the other hand, emerging market and developing economies, especially those in Asia, will continue to play the role of the engine of global economic growth. The IMF expects India’s economy to grow by 6.2% in 2026, and the five major ASEAN countries to achieve a growth rate of 4.1%. China’s economic growth prospects are also widely optimistic, with projections of steady growth supported by macroeconomic policies.
Lingering “Chill” Amid Warmth: Risks and Uncertainties Loom Large
However, the IMF chief’s remarks about “exceptional resilience” are by no means blind optimism. She also explicitly warned that “uncertainty has become the new normal”. This characterization reveals that beyond its resilience, the global economy is facing a series of severe and persistent risks.
The most immediate challenge stems from trade policies and geopolitics. Georgieva pointed out that factors such as geopolitical tensions, technological transformation, and the reshaping of trade relations are eroding the predictability of the global economy. The impact of tariff policies has a lag effect, and their negative consequences may gradually surface in 2026. The World Trade Organization has drastically lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, to a level bordering on stagnation. At the same time, any escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and other regions could severely disrupt the global energy market and supply chains.
Another major risk lies in soaring debt and financial vulnerabilities. The global debt scale has hit a record high, with developed economies burdened by heavy government debt, while some developing countries face a higher risk of debt default. Meanwhile, financial market valuations remain elevated. A reversal of market sentiment could trigger sharp adjustments in asset prices, with developing countries bearing the brunt. In addition, the IMF predicts that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, posing a long-term structural challenge.
Uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook is also on the rise. Although global inflation is expected to ease, the “last mile” of the inflation-reduction journey is fraught with challenges. The transmission effect of earlier tariff policies may gradually push up prices in the future, and some countries may pursue short-term economic stimulus for political considerations, laying the groundwork for an inflation rebound.
Finally, the divergence and volatility of macroeconomic policies among various countries, particularly the test to the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures, have become one of the core sources of uncertainty in the global financial market. Such policy uncertainty not only affects capital flows but may also undermine market confidence.
The Anchor of Resilience: How Can the Global Economy Navigate the Fog of the “New Normal”?
Overall, the IMF’s upcoming report paints a complex picture interwoven with resilience. The “exceptional resilience” demonstrated by the global economy is both an affirmation of the adaptive capacity of countries around the world over the past few years and a warning about potential further shocks in the future. This resilience is not an impenetrable barrier, but rather a dynamic capability that requires continuous nurturing.
To navigate through this fog of uncertainty, countries need to further strengthen their domestic economic and financial buffers, and there is an urgent need to rebuild bridges for international cooperation and policy coordination. As Georgieva has called for, a multipolar world needs to address challenges collectively by enhancing cooperation and safeguarding trade openness. In an era where uncertainty itself has become the most certain factor, maintaining policy consistency, strengthening institutional resilience, and deepening international cooperation will be the keys to ensuring the steady progress of the global economy, like a giant ship braving the wind and waves.
发表回复