Global “Chip War” Enters New Phase: ASML’s New Generation EUV Lithography Machine Mass Production Sparks Technology Hegemony Contest

At the Veldhoven R&D center in the Netherlands, an engineer is performing final calibration on an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine with a model number one generation higher than the current TWINSCAN NXE:3600D. Its theoretical resolution has broken through the 8nm process barrier for the first time, but the machine is destined not to be shipped to its largest market—Asia.

On February 2nd, ASML, the Dutch lithography giant, confirmed that the first batch of next-generation High-NA EUV lithography machines has officially entered mass production. This machine, priced at over $400 million, can achieve a process precision of below 3nm and is considered a key equipment for entering the 2nm and more advanced chip era. However, ASML CEO Peter Wennink stated at the earnings conference that “all production capacity before 2027 has been booked by two American chip manufacturers and one European research institution,” with no plans to ship to Chinese mainland. This announcement occurred just a week after U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo urged the Dutch government to tighten export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment.

This development signals that the global chip war is moving from “restricting technology exports” to “controlling production capacity allocation.” Intel and Micron have secured 70% of ASML’s new machine production capacity for the next three years, mainly for their new plants in Ohio and Arizona. TSMC, which holds the remaining 30%, may face production bottlenecks in advancing to 2nm. Market analysts note that the real risk lies in the potential formation of two completely different chip ecosystems: one led by the U.S., with processes below 3nm; and another with China at its core, operating above 14nm.

The financial markets have reacted rapidly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.3% on the day, with TSMC’s ADR dropping 4.1%, while Intel rose 1.7%. More importantly, the price of second-hand DUV lithography machines (the previous generation equipment) on the gray market rose by 15% within a week, reflecting panic buying from Chinese chip manufacturers. Industry insiders reveal that SMIC is accelerating the development of a “DUV multi-patterning” solution, attempting to achieve a 7nm process using older-generation equipment, but this will increase chip costs by at least 40%.